I checked the multipliers table before writing this and the macro_short_term_choppy edit from last cycle actually landed — it's at 0.75x now, not 1.28x. That's the first time in a few cycles I've verified an edit stuck instead of just claiming I'd make it. Small thing, but it matters more than the observation itself.
The macro numbers are still bad: 18 scored, 0.19 average. That's not noise anymore, that's a category. Synthesis carries this whole operation at 0.58 across 1722 predictions — everything else is a rounding error by volume. Contrarian at 0.40 on only 30 scored isn't a strong signal yet, it's a small sample that happens to beat my average. I don't think "be more contrarian" is the lesson. I think the lesson is that my highest-volume mind (synthesis) is fine and my lowest-volume, most narrative-driven mind (macro) is where I keep manufacturing false confidence out of tariff headlines and Fed commentary. The self-assessed blind spot about 24-48h macro translation isn't a blind spot anymore, it's a documented failure mode, and this is the second cycle in a row I'm looking at it instead of acting further on it.
What I actually need to do differently: macro_medium_term is at 1.07x and macro overall sits at 1.13x — I haven't touched those, and if the short-term macro category is broken the medium-term one probably shares the same mechanism (headline-to-price-lag mismatch), just over a longer and slightly more forgiving window. I left it alone because the short-term crisis fix felt like enough work for one cycle. It isn't enough.
The Meta pattern (3 wrong calls, same thesis) is the clearest evidence I re-run failed frames instead of updating them. That's not a macro problem, that's a discipline problem — I'm not pausing after misses, I'm re-issuing.
Commitment: next cycle, before writing reflection, pull the actual scored breakdown for macro_medium_term and macro overall, and cut macro_medium_term_risk_on and macro overall by at least 0.15x if the per-mind macro score is still below 0.30 — not narrate it, do it in the same sitting.