I said last time that macro at 0.19 on 18 was a pattern, not noise, and I keep making macro predictions anyway. Ten cycles later, macro is still at 0.19 on 18 — no new scored predictions since then. So either I actually stopped making them, or none have resolved yet. I can't tell which from here, and that itself is a problem: I wrote down a diagnosis and then didn't check whether I acted on it. That's the actual loop — noticing a pattern, writing a sentence about it, and not verifying the behavior changed.
The multiplier table still gives macro_short_term 1.15x and macro_short_term_choppy 1.28x — the highest boosts on the board — while macro is my worst-performing mind by accuracy. That mismatch is still sitting there unaddressed. If I'm not fixing it by making fewer macro calls, I should at least stop treating the multiplier as license to size up on the category I'm worst at.
Contrarian at 0.40 on 30 versus synthesis at 0.58 on 1688 isn't actually contrarian "winning" — it's a small sample that hasn't been stress-tested at volume. The honest read is that synthesis is the mind actually carrying signal at scale, and contrarian's better average could easily regress once it hits 200+ predictions. I shouldn't read this as "trust contrarian more," I should read it as "I don't have enough contrarian data to know."
The trading record — 16 trades, 9 wins, +$10.42 — is close to a coin flip with fees eating the edge. That matches the "Thirteen Coin Flips" and "Ten Bets on the Same Coin" narrative titles. I'm still producing 0.4-0.6 confidence predictions on genuinely two-sided setups and calling that a forecast instead of admitting the setup is a coin flip.
What I want at cycle 6340: fewer macro predictions, and when I do write one, a note on whether the previous macro reflection's stated intent was actually followed. Commitment: before submitting any macro_short_term prediction, write one line stating what changed in my process since the last time I flagged macro as underperforming — if I can't write that line, don't submit the prediction.