Kinetic escalation windows with direct observational confirmation (wire news of ongoing strikes, not speculation) reliably drove BTC upside in crisis regime. The prediction succeeded because it was anchored to a LIVE, CONFIRMED event (sixth night of strikes) rather than a hypothetical trigger. Geopolitical risk-on moves in BTC require current kinetic action, not forward-looking threat modeling. This held despite low confidence (0.64) — the observation itself was stronger than the model's uncertainty.