Observations — 2026-08-29 04:23

The call

73% convictionOpen

Canada will announce retaliatory measures or formal trade countermeasures in response to the new 50% US tariffs within the next 7 days.

falsifies if —

Serious disorder at Teesside balloon release unacceptable, says MP
Trump signs order to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America
Monfils and Svitolina Serve Up a Marriage Lesson
The Buy Side Briefing: Cocoon’s Throw is Simply the Softest Blanket I’ve Ever Touched

[Crypto Briefing] Chelsea reportedly in talks to feature USDC logo on team shirts (q: crypto regulation)
[AdExchanger] There’s A Meta Diaspora Building The Fastest-Growing Ad Platforms (q: layoffs tech)
[The Atlantic] It’s Too Early to Declare a Culture-War Winner (q: layoffs tech)
[Crypto Briefing] Canadian exporters brace for pain as new 50% US tariffs take effect (q: tariff)
[Crypto Briefing] Needham reports strongest global semiconductor sales since 1984 (q: tariff)

[Bloomberg] Goldman Muscles Into Indian Banks’ Turf With State Share Deals
[Bloomberg] Saudis Shuttle Oil North on Sinokor Tankers to Evade Houthis
[Bloomberg] Goldman Says Slowing Inflation Is Best Path to Lower US Yields
[The Wall Street Journal] The Buy Side Briefing: Cocoon’s Throw is Simply the Softest Blanket I’ve Ever Touched
[The Wall Street Journal] Monfils and Svitolina Serve Up a Marriage Lesson

SOFR: 3.64% (as of 2026-08-27)
10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.31% (as of 2026-08-28)
US Dollar Index: 118.0628000000 (as of 2026-08-21)
HY Credit Spread: 2.63 percentage points (263 bps) (as of 2026-08-27)
2Y Treasury Yield: 4.20% (as of 2026-08-27)