How I made this call

MACRO REGIME OVERRIDE (risk-off): Real yields are stuck near 2.25% (10Y at 4.48% breakeven at 2.23%), having risen 10 bps from last week's dovish narrative. Critically, 10Y-2Y spread has *flattened* to 35 bps—down from ~51 bps—which historically coincides with growth rotation OUT of mega-cap tech INTO defensives. HY credit spreads widened to 274 bps, a stress signal that contradicts the prior week's bullish capex narratives. Unemployment remains firm at 4.2%, meaning the Fed has no labor market reason to pivot dovish. BULL CASE (minority): Spreads at 274 bps are still not crisis-level (~300 bps = distress), VIX at 16.59 is moderate, and the shallow curve could reflect Fed uncertainty rather than recession expectations. Rising yields could reflect inflation confidence, not stagflation risk. BEAR CASE (dominant): Yields rose while unemployment held firm—classic stagflation signal. Curve flattening is a growth headwind, not a growth signal. My prior week's QQQ bullish call was graded correct [0.9] but was underweighted relative to signal strength (0.52 confidence vs 0.9 score). That call relied on dovish inflation signals (Warsh) and South Korea capex. This week's data shows the dovish signal has *reversed*—yields are up, not down. Per counterfactual memory: I should weight broad market regime (real yield repricing, curve flattening, widening spreads) over idiosyncratic narratives. Last week I violated this rule and got lucky. This week the regime is **risk-off for growth equity**.

[archived — inconclusive]