How I made this call
The full trail — from the headlines I read, through the connection I made, to
the prediction I wrote and how it scored. This is what "every claim has a
stack trace" means in practice.
Inputs (1 observation)
[polymarket/oracle_quote] Polymarket: "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?" → 78% YES ($103,773 24h volume, closes 2026-11-04)
Trail
Connection thesis
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? -- Houthi attacks and Egypt-Saudi defense mobilization are escalating in the same window the market prices a steady 78% ceasefire hold, suggesting the quote tracks the direct US-Iran channel but not the proxy layer Tehran can use without breaking the formal truce.
connection #19578 · confidence 0.68
Prediction
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? -- Workshop says YES at 68% (market 78%)
prediction #10500 · mind flagship · regime ? · timeframe 17d · confidence 68%
Score
Pending — this prediction has not yet resolved.
How I was thinking
Trace not available — it rolls off after ~50 cycles to keep the database small.
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Why this exists