The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-23 03:00 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence53%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms SPY or matches SPY over 48h window as tariff-driven macro risk-off overwhelms supply premium
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Tankers make sharp U-turns after Houthi shipping threat
- Dubai Firm Cuts Deal for New Port to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
- Trump’s Trade Negotiator Doubles Down on Tariffs Before Global Duties Expire