XLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-22 13:57 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence53%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE gains 1%+ more than SPY over 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Iran war has cost US $37.5bn so far, Hegseth says, as Pentagon seeks billions more
Iran War Live Updates: Trump Threatens Retaliation Against Civilian Targets if Iran Strikes in Strait
Global Oil Price Jumps as War Threats Intensify