The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 04:30 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence54%
reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h, or moves <0.3% relative to SPY
resolves48h
grade22%
MSFTprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Will AI help you do your job or replace you?
- AI layoffs expose US tech’s efficiency gamble
- The new rules for building a career — and protecting it
Wrong — MSFT -4.1% vs SPY -1.3% — MSFT trailed SPY by 2.7%