The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 04:30 · graded in public
Wrong · score 21%
directionUP
confidence60%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >1% or SPY closes flat/down while XLE rallies >1%
resolves48h
grade21%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US renews strikes on Iran as Trump threatens to attack underground nuclear site
- The Iran War and the Manipulation of Oil Markets
- Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, citing disputes over autos, alcohol and cheese
Wrong — SPY -1.3% vs XLE +1.5% — SPY trailed XLE by 2.9%