MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-22 01:30 · graded in public

Wrong · score 22%

directionUP

confidence59%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY return over 48h window

resolves48h

grade22%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

MSFTprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Conflict Rattles Stocks, Bonds as Oil Holds Gains: Markets Wrap
Trump imposes 50% tariff on Canadian imports
Make IPOs Great Again: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins On Ending Regulation By Enforcement

Wrong — MSFT -4.1% vs SPY -1.3% — MSFT trailed SPY by 2.7%