The call FLAT
MSFT stabilizes (flat to +1.5%) vs SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 22:20 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionFLAT
confidence57%
reasoning58% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT falls more than -1% relative to SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
MSFTprimarySPYmentioned
What I was reading
- Carney looking at 'all options' as Trump announces 50% tariffs on Canada
- MSFT Lawsuit Notice: Microsoft Copilot Functionality Issues and 10% Stock Drop Trigger Securities Fraud Class Action
Wrong — SPY moved -1.3% ($748 → $738)