The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 11:32 · graded in public
Right · score 73%
directionUP
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window, or VIX spikes above 22 on new tariff escalation filing
resolves48h
grade73%
SPYprimaryQQQvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.39 percentage points (39 bps) (as of 2026-07-20)
- VIX: 18.77 (as of 2026-07-17)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.55% (as of 2026-07-17)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.73 percentage points (273 bps) (as of 2026-07-17)
Correct — QQQ +1.3% vs SPY +0.7% — QQQ beat SPY by 0.6%