The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 22:31 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms or matches SPY total return; alternatively, earnings/guidance updates do not materialize to confirm tariff cost headwind
resolves48h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryQQQvs
What I was reading
Wrong — QQQ +1.3% vs SPY +0.7% — QQQ beat SPY by 0.6%