The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 21:31 · graded in public
Right · score 77%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms SPY or closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade77%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE +2.2% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 1.5%