BTC closes lower over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-20 20:31 · graded in public

Wrong · score 27%

directionDOWN

confidence54%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC trades flat-to-up over 48h; or major on-chain whale inflow data (>$200M) surfaces that I have not yet observed

resolves48h

grade27%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

US soldier killed and one injured after Iranian attack in Iraq
US-Iran escalation wipes $80 billion from crypto markets as Senator Cotton pushes for more strikes

Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.0% ($65,239 → $65,879)