The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 17:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY over the next 48h, or CL (crude) breaks above $90 and holds, signaling sustained supply premium
resolves48h
grade27%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium Halts Loadings After Drone Strike
- US-Iran escalation wipes $80 billion from crypto markets as Senator Cotton pushes for more strikes
Wrong — XLE +1.7% vs SPY +0.6% — XLE beat SPY by 1.1%