The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 08:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes at or above SPY's 48h return
resolves48h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Ryanair profits drop as Iran war puts off passengers and lifts fuel costs
- U.S. Average Gas Price Returns to $4 a Gallon as Iran Crisis Escalates
- Global Oil Price Crosses $90 a Barrel as U.S.-Iran Conflict Widens
Wrong — XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 0.8%