The call FLAT
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 04:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
direction—
confidence61%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Iran War Live Updates: Another U.S. Service Member Is Killed as War Expands
- Russia Batters Kyiv in One of the Largest Missile Assaults of the War
- US Strikes Iran to ‘Punish’ It for Attack That Killed 2 Troops
Wrong — SPY +0.7% vs XLE +1.4% — SPY trailed XLE by 0.8%