The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-17 20:28 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US military strikes supertanker near Iran’s oil export terminal, rattling energy and crypto markets
- Iran War Live Updates: Bridges and Water Plants Hit as Strikes Stretch to 7th Straight Day
- Ether falls twice as hard as bitcoin and HYPE drops 10%
Wrong — XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 0.8%