The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-17 10:27 · graded in public
Wrong · score 24%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes +0.5% or higher while SPY closes flat-to-down, or XLE outperforms SPY by >0.3 points
resolves24h
grade24%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US launches new strikes as Iran says civilian infrastructure hit
- Shipping in the Persian Gulf Nears a Halt and Oil Prices Rise
- Gulf exporters turn to pipelines as Hormuz risks grow
Wrong — XLE +1.2% vs SPY -1.0% — XLE beat SPY by 2.1%