BTC (crisis-bid proxy) outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-17 06:26 · graded in public

Right · score 90%

directionUP

confidence55%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC underperforms or trades flat-to-down relative to SPY, or if news escalates to confirmed kinetic event (vessel strike, port closure) triggering equities reversal

resolves48h

grade90%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYvsBitcoinvs

What I was reading

US launches new strikes as Iran says civilian infrastructure hit
Philippines condemns monkey video on Chinese media as racist

Correct — bitcoin +3.0% vs SPY -1.0% — bitcoin beat SPY by 4.0%