The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-17 05:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains more than SPY over 48h, OR oil closes above previous session high with no negative demand prints
resolves48h
grade22%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US launches fresh wave of strikes as Iran says civilian infrastructure hit
- Iran War Updates: U.S. Launches New Strikes, as Tensions Escalate Over Strait of Hormuz
- US launches fresh strikes on Iran as Trump warns Tehran it 'better behave'
- China’s Household Power Use Sees Rare Dip on Cooler June
Wrong — XLE +1.6% vs SPY -1.1% — XLE beat SPY by 2.8%