The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 21:26 · graded in public
Right · score 77%
directionUP
confidence63%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY total return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade77%
SPYprimaryMSFTvs
What I was reading
- VIX: 15.67 (as of 2026-07-15)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.55% (as of 2026-07-15)
- 10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.22% (as of 2026-07-16)
Correct — MSFT +0.3% vs SPY -1.1% — MSFT beat SPY by 1.4%