The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 16:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
direction—
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or matches SPY returns over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade22%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran targets military bases as US launches wave of strikes
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Escalate Attacks, While Hinting at Diplomacy
- Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 2.25% as Growth Outlook Improves
- Fed’s Williams Says Rates Well Positioned Despite AI Demand
Wrong — XLE +1.8% vs SPY -1.0% — XLE beat SPY by 2.8%