The call ▲ UP
COIN outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 12:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 16%
directionUP
confidence59%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifCOIN underperforms SPY or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade16%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryCOINvs
What I was reading
Wrong — COIN -6.0% vs SPY -1.5% — COIN trailed SPY by 4.5%