The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 09:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 19%
directionUP
confidence61%
reasoning82% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes +3% or higher relative to SPY, or VIX closes >19 on fresh geopolitical print
resolves48h
grade19%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Diesel Prices Hit $5 a Gallon Again, Up 33% Since Start of Iran War
- VIX: 16.5 (as of 2026-07-14)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.58% (as of 2026-07-14)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.18% (as of 2026-07-14)
Wrong — SPY -1.5% vs XLE +2.1% — SPY trailed XLE by 3.6%