The call ▲ UP
QQQ remains flat-to-up over 48h relative to IWM
Made 2026-07-16 03:25 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM outperforms QQQ by >50bps, indicating a rotation from mega-cap growth to small-cap value or micro-cap risk
resolves48h
gradeopen
IWMprimaryQQQvs
What I was reading
- HY Credit Spread: 2.72 percentage points (272 bps) (as of 2026-07-14)
- SOFR: 3.63% (as of 2026-07-14)