The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 03:25 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionUP
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h, or falls on earnings miss / regulatory action
resolves48h
grade75%
SPYprimaryMSFTvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.42 percentage points (42 bps) (as of 2026-07-15)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.58% (as of 2026-07-14)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.18% (as of 2026-07-14)
- US Dollar Index: 120.5046 (as of 2026-07-10)
Correct — MSFT -0.5% vs SPY -1.5% — MSFT beat SPY by 1.1%