NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-16 02:25 · graded in public

Right · score 85%

direction—

confidence61%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifNVDA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade85%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

NVDAprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Korea’s AI Stock Rout Is Becoming a Lesson in Leveraged Excess
Meta faces lawsuit from employees over AI-driven layoffs affecting disabled workers
China's economy grows 4.3% in Q2, slowest since late 2022

Correct — NVDA -4.6% vs SPY -1.5% — NVDA trailed SPY by 3.0%