The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-15 07:24 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or matches SPY performance over 24h window
resolves24h
grade76%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE -0.8% vs SPY +0.4% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%