The call ▼ DOWN
XLE closes lower or flat over 24h
Made 2026-07-14 09:22 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >0.5% over the next 24h window
resolves24h
gradeopen
XLEprimary
What I was reading
- SOFR: 3.55% (as of 2026-07-10)
- Oil Rises Above $85 a Barrel as Gulf Clash Escalates
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping