The call FLAT
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 05:22 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
direction—
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes higher than SPY or matches SPY's % return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade76%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping
- The Fed’s Christopher Waller Warns of Higher Rates Soon if Inflation Stays High
- US and Iran trade fire as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
- Base Metals Decline as US, Iran Flare-Up Clouds Demand Outlook
Correct — SPY +0.8% vs XLE -0.4% — SPY beat XLE by 1.2%