XLE outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-13 22:22 · graded in public

Wrong · score 26%

directionUP

confidence64%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifSPY matches or outperforms XLE over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade26%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Trump reinstates Iran port blockade and vows 20% charge on cargo passing through Hormuz
The U.S. strikes Iran after Trump announces a renewed blockade and tolls in Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance as US-Iran ceasefire unravels
After Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Again, Oil’s Risk to Economy Rises Once More

Wrong — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%