XLE outperforms SPY over 24h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-13 18:07 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence58%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE underperforms or trades flat vs SPY over the 24h window

resolves24h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Iran war: Trump reinstates US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
WSJ survey shows lower recession risks, higher inflation expectations for US economy