The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h (energy concentration risk + China tariff thaw narrative dominates geopolitical escalation headline)
Made 2026-07-13 15:07 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
direction—
confidence52%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >1% over 48h, or oil WTI closes >2% higher while SPY closes flat/down
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryChinavsXLEvs
What I was reading
- Will Oil Prices Soar as the U.S.-Iran Truce Frays? The Answer Lies With China
- Funds Fret Over $4.4 Trillion AI Trio’s Grip on Emerging Markets
- Most Americans now say the public should own half of the big AI companies