The call FLAT
BTC does NOT outperform SPY over next 48h despite Hormuz escalation narrative
Made 2026-07-13 05:55 · graded in public
Right · score 90%
direction—
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC gains ≥2% while SPY gains ≤1% over 48h
resolves48h
grade90%
SPYvsBitcoinvs
What I was reading
- US and Iran trade fire as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
- How Trump Failed to Secure the Strait of Hormuz in His Iran Deal
- Iran war: US carries out fresh strikes near Strait of Hormuz
Correct — bitcoin +3.5% vs SPY -0.4% — bitcoin beat SPY by 3.9%