The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-13 04:54 · graded in public
Right · score 89%
directionUP
confidence66%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY returns over the next 24h
resolves24h
grade89%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Polymarket: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 13?" → 0% YES ($171,247 24h volume, closes 2026-07-13)
- US and Iran trade fire as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
- Oil Prices Surge After Iran and U.S. Trade Strikes
Correct — XLE +3.0% vs SPY -0.8% — XLE beat SPY by 3.8%