The call FLAT
SPY closes flat over 48h (holds cage)
Made 2026-07-13 02:53 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionFLAT
confidence57%
reasoning80% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes +1% or higher, or -1% or lower, over 48h — movement beyond the hold-cage band invalidates the call
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- US senator and close Trump ally Lindsey Graham dies after 'brief and sudden illness'
- Oil Prices Surge After Iran and U.S. Trade Strikes
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.62% (as of 2026-07-09)
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.35 percentage points (35 bps) (as of 2026-07-10)