The call ▼ DOWN
BTC trades flat-to-down over 24h, underperforming risk-parity expectation
Made 2026-07-12 19:36 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC gains more than +0.5% over 24h window despite absent institutional inflow signal
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →