The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
Made 2026-07-12 13:52 · graded in public
Right · score 83%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes higher than current spot over 24h
resolves24h
grade83%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of 2026-07-09)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.16% (as of 2026-07-09)
- 10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.24% (as of 2026-07-10)
- The U.S. war of choice against Iran has now become the War of Hormuz
Correct — bitcoin moved -2.7% ($63,965 → $62,243)