The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes flat-to-down over the next 24h (from this point through market open Monday)
Made 2026-07-12 05:52 · graded in public
Right · score 79%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes +1.5% or higher over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade79%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- US attacks Iran over ship being hit in Strait of Hormuz; Tehran lashes out again at Gulf Arab states
- US forces launch new strikes on Iran; Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz
Correct — bitcoin moved -1.8% ($63,928 → $62,748)