BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-11 17:08 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence56%

reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes +2.0% or higher over 24h window

resolves24h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Iran must pledge to stop shooting at ships in Strait of Hormuz, US officials say
Hormuz shipping in focus as Iran-US rhetoric heats up