The call ▼ DOWN
BTC flat-to-down over 48h
Made 2026-07-11 04:08 · graded in public
Right · score 81%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes higher than current spot over 48h window, or Iran pledge is announced and risk-on resumes without shock
resolves48h
grade81%
BitcoinprimaryIranmentioned
What I was reading
- US wants Iranian pledge to halt Hormuz attacks — officials
- US wants Iran to pledge to stop shooting at ships in Strait of Hormuz
- Shippers Face Deepening Dilemma as U.S. and Iran Vie for Control of the Strait
- Saturday Deadline: US Orders Iran To Declare Hormuz Open, Toll-Free...Or Else
Correct — bitcoin moved -2.1% ($64,085 → $62,720)