The call FLAT
QQQ matches or underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 19:07 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
direction—
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY by >0.5 points over the 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryQQQvs
What I was reading
- A.I. Has Rewarded Investors. It May Now Pose Their Greatest Risk
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.38 percentage points (38 bps) (as of 2026-07-09)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.70 percentage points (270 bps) (as of 2026-07-08)