BTC flat-to-up over 48h, lean toward modest strength on institutional inflow signal

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-10 12:07 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionUP

confidence54%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-down over 48h

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

DeFi veteran Gauntlet raises $125 million from Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings
SEC Broker-Dealer Roundtable Puts Digital Disclosure Rules Back On The Agenda
Circle faces criminal complaint in Wisconsin over USDC recovery refusal

Wrong — bitcoin moved -0.5% ($64,341 → $63,993)