The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 02:57 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM meets or outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade75%
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
- US launches more strikes on Iran with blasts reported in south of country
- Iran War Updates: U.S. and Iran Sink Into Violent Cycle After Latest Strikes
- Renewed Fighting With Iran Shows Cracks in Peace-Trade Rally
Correct — IWM -1.3% vs SPY -0.3% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.9%