The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 02:57 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM meets or outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade75%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
Correct — IWM -1.3% vs SPY -0.3% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.9%