BTC underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-09 09:08 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionDOWN

confidence58%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes higher relative to SPY's return over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYvsBitcoinvs

What I was reading

BTC Drops Back to $62K, Coinbase Premium Hits Record Lows, and the EU is Eyeing Even Tighter Crypto Regulation
At Warsh’s First Fed Meeting, Some Officials Signaled Support for Raising Interest Rates

Wrong — bitcoin +2.1% vs SPY +1.3% (spread +0.8%)