The call FLAT
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-09 06:08 · graded in public
Right · score 81%
direction
confidence54%
reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade81%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — SPY +1.3% vs XLE -0.9% — SPY beat XLE by 2.2%