The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-08 23:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence67%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or underperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US strikes target Iranian military boats
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Launches New Strikes on Iran, Military Says
- Oil Market Calm Shattered by Fresh Hostilities Between US and Iran
Wrong — XLE -0.9% vs SPY +1.3% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.2% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.81]